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Written by Administrator
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Monday, 08 January 2007 |
BC home sales slow as real estate market re-balances
Published: Thursday, January 04, 2007
It's official, the Lower Mainland's residential real estate market is definitely slowing down.
In 2006, home sales in the Greater Vancouver area -- which stretches from Whistler to Maple Ridge and Tsawwassen -- were down 12.4 per cent from 2005 and two per cent below 2004 numbers. Sales in December were down 28 per cent compared to both a month and year earlier.
But the number of sales in December -- 1,686 -- is still considered a good market and nothing will compare to the phenomenal numbers of 2005, said Rick Valouche, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver.
The beginning of 2006 also started at a blistering pace, but the second half of the year was "most definitely" slower, he said.
And while sales are down, prices continue upward, again at a slower pace, he said.
"We need that because we were just starting to get a little bit crazy," Valouche said.
Average house prices ended the year at $775,700, up 24 per cent from $627,500 a year earlier. Attached homes went to $441,000 from $401,500, an increase of only 10 per cent, and apartments increased 14 per cent to $353,800 from $309,700.
Increased listings, usually a sign of a slowing market, failed to materialize in December, but Valouche was hopeful that will reverse this month. "I think we are continuing on the road toward balance," he said.
David Rishel, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board agreed that the market was different now than it was in the first six months of 2006.
"The first part of 2006 was very busy and it just slowly got a little bit quieter and a little bit quieter as the year went on," Rishel said. "It's a very balanced market now. People don't have to make those rush decisions. They can take their time and be a little bit more well-informed."
In the Fraser Valley area, which encompasses north Delta to Abbotsford on the south side of the Fraser River and Mission on the north side, sales were down almost 11 per cent from 2005, but still beat 2004 numbers, which at the time constituted a new record. Over the year, listings were up slightly but the number of active listings at the end of the year were 46-per-cent higher than a year earlier.
The average price for a townhouse in the area fell almost seven per cent in December compared to November, while apartment prices fell three per cent and house prices remained steady. But year over year, detached homes were up 19 per cent to $488,000 from $410,000, townhomes rose 10 per cent, from $259,000 to $285,000 and apartments increased 15 per cent, from $168,500 to $193,500.
Prices are not expected to drop.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. predicts prices in the Vancouver area to increase between six and nine per cent in 2007, with the largest rise in apartments where there is still room for growth, CMHC's market analyst Bryan Yu said.
That's a slowdown from the double-digit increases the area has been seeing, Yu said.
(prepared by Fiona Anderson/Vancouver Sun)
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Written by Administrator
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Thursday, 21 December 2006 |
Inching to a balanced market
New-home prices keep edging up in Greater Vancouver but the high-flying markets of Calgary and Victoria are starting to see some price easing, Statistics Canada said in its latest new-housing price index released yesterday.
While Vancouver prices edged ahead 0.5 per cent in October, Victoria prices trimmed their sails by 0.5 per cent.
In oil-rich Calgary, where double-digit increases have been the norm, prices slipped by the same amount, the first drop since November 2004.
Nationally, housing prices in October edged up by 0.2 per cent, the smallest monthly increase since July 2005 and below economists expectations of a 0.5 per cent.
Derek Burelton, an economist with the Toronto-Dominion Bank, said all of that is growing evidence that Canada's housing market is finally cooling.
"We have seen some sales slowdown in the resale markets and that appears to be making its way through to new housing."
But it is still too early to say whether house prices have peaked and are ready for a major correction. Burelton said the market is "inching to a balanced market."
StatsCan numbers show new- home prices rose in 11 of the 21 major metropolitan areas it surveys, with Edmonton leading the pack with a 2.2-per-cent increase in prices.
"Higher costs for construction materials, labour rates and an active housing market continued to be factors driving prices," Statscan said.
Greater Vancouver housing starts remain strong.
The latest numbers from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. show starts rising by five per cent last month to 1,405 units compared with a year ago.
The market remains dominated by multiple-unit starts and is expected to provide a wider selection of housing for consumers and improve housing affordability.
Peter Simpson, CEO of the Greater Vancouver Home Builder's Association, said: "We will see some softening of prices for some building materials but they will most likely be offset by increased costs of land and development charges imposed by municipalities.
"We expect to match last year's housing-start numbers and see them fall marginally to around 17,000 next year, which is still a very strong market," he said.
"Most pundits see prices increasing but level off around the six- to seven-per-cent mark."
(prepared by Ashley Ford/Vancouver Province)
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Written by Administrator
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Sunday, 10 December 2006 |
BC's growth continues to look bright
'You're the Gloomy Gus," I said to Ernie Stokes of Stokes Economic Consulting as he emerged from a meeting room Friday where he and 12 other economic advisers had been briefing Finance Minister Carole Taylor on B.C.'s economic outlook.
"No," he said, looking taken aback. "I'm an optimist."
Both of us were right.
Stokes predicts growth for the province this year of 3.5 per cent -- half a percentage point lower than the average of his peers, and a whopping 1.4 per cent less than the highly optimistic Craig Wright of RBC Financial Group. So I wasn't wrong to note that his was a lowball figure.
But 3.5 per cent this year -- and 2.8 per cent for each of the next two years -- are respectable growth numbers in any developed economy.
Last year, for example, the preliminary data showed B.C.'s growth rate to be 3.5 per cent (it was later revised upward to 3.7), and a BC Stats report called this "stellar". This wasn't hyperbole -- we beat every province but Alberta. And only once in the 1990s did we ever see performance that good.
So when even Gloomy Gus is talking stellar numbers, you can take it that the B.C. economy is looking good.
Finance Minister Taylor will no doubt take note of that -- she'll probably take as a working estimate a figure slightly lower than the advisers' average when she sits down with her bean counters to work on her February budget.
But neither she nor you can take these numbers to the bank.
For one thing, there will be a huge difference in economic impact depending on which forecaster -- Stokes at the low end, Wright at the high end, or someone in the middle -- proves to be right. That will impact government coffers directly, and ultimately taxpayers' wallets.
Despite different numbers, the forecasters are all looking at the same things, just from slightly different perspectives. All see powerful domestic demand with all the building going on and all the jobs, and that drives the numbers up. And all see some negatives -- both real and potential.
The negatives include our major trading partner's economic doldrums, especially the weak housing market in the U.S. Add wildly fluctuating commodity prices that can just as easily be down as up. Factor in our strong dollar, which tends to keep foreign tourists at home and foreign buyers from snapping up our exports. And there's not only a shortage of skilled workers, but also fierce competition with Alberta for those who might be enticed to come here.
A little further down the road, the big impact of the pine beetle will be felt. There may be a slowdown driven by soaring construction costs. And there's certain to be a huge demographic shift as baby boomers retire.
So cheery numbers are probable, but they're no done deal.
And even if they come to pass, you might not notice the prosperity as personally as you'd like.
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